Black turnout passed white voters for first time in 2012 election

By Jonathan Easley - 04/29/13 08:31 AM ET

  

Black voters turned out at the polls at a higher rate than white voters for the first time ever in the 2012 election, according to an analysis conducted by the Associated Press.

According to the report, released on Monday, Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney would have narrowly defeated President Obama if turnout had more closely resembled the demographic breakdown of the 2004 election.

The Associated Press called the analysis, conducted by William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution, a “tipping point” for black voters.

President Obama won 93 percent of the black vote, 71 percent of the Hispanic vote and 73 percent of the Asian vote in the 2012 election. However, it was the rate of turnout, not the high margins of separation with those groups, that won the election for Obama.

According to the analysis, if white voters and black voters had shown up at the rate they did in 2004, then Romney would have erased the nearly 5 million-vote deficit that ended up separating the two. He also would have won the key battleground states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Virginia and Colorado, giving him an Electoral College victory.

One of the primary criticisms of Romney was that he wasn’t a committed conservative, and was thus incapable of turning out those Republicans who remained on the fence. Overall in 2012, voter turnout was 58 percent. That’s down from 62 percent in 2008 and 60 percent in 2004.

How the demographics of the election would shake out was a hotly contested issue during the 2012 campaign. Many conservatives argued that the polls skewed in Obama’s favor because sample sizes were based on 2008, when Democrats — and Hispanics, blacks and young voters in particular — turned out in record numbers.

Those projections turned out to be correct, provoking many Republicans to re-examine their message and policies as they relate to minorities.

Republican National Committee chairman Reince Priebus has been travelling around the country meeting with minority leaders in 2013, and has pledged to engage minority voters year-round going forward.

Read more: http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/296635-black-turnout-passed-white-voters-for-first-time-in-2012-election#ixzz2Rrfkpa00 
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Television continued to serve as the primary source with 67 percent of voters saying they turned to the TV for campaign news coverage. Another interesting bit of info: Cable news was by far preferred to the networks:

Among TV news outlets, 42% cite cable news as a main source. Network television is named by 19% of voters, while 11% cite local TV news. These percentages are little changed from 2008.

Among cable networks, 23% of voters name the Fox News Channel as a main source; 18% cite CNN and 9% MSNBC. There also is little change in the percentage naming any of these cable networks from 2008.

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I have long believed that social issues including gay marriage would be a key for Republicans to connect with minority Latino and African American voters. Connecting with these voters on issues of morality and faith represented a huge opportunity to make inroads with a voting bloc Democrats have dominated for decades.

But since President Barack Obama’s “evolution” and new-found support for gay marriage, the tides seem to be changing and the GOP may have missed its window of opportunity:

When California voted for a gay marriage ban in 2008, 70 percent of African Americans voted for it, and when North Carolina overwhelmingly passed a similar measure earlier this year, many cited the black vote as a big reason. (Shortly after the ban passed in North Carolina, President Obama came out in favor of gay marriage.)

On Tuesday in Maryland, though, 46 percent of African Americans supported gay marriage. And according to national exit polls, 52 percent of both black and Latino voters who turned out Tuesday said they support gay marriage in their states.

(The largest shift came from black women, of which 59 percent now support gay marriage, compared to 42 percent of black men — a huge gender gap.)

That’s a big turnaround from recent years. In 2008 and 2009, a Pew Research Center survey showed just 28 percent of African Americans and 39 percent of Latinos backed gay marriage. And by 2010, support in those communities was rising slower than it was among whites.

The exit polls suggest both groups have now moved in large numbers toward supporting gay marriage. Their shifts may not be bigger than other demographics, but the fact that they are shifting at all (after sticking to their opposition) is what’s really significant here.

And given their affinity for President Obama — 93 percent of African Americans and 71 percent of Latinos voted for the president — it’s not unreasonable to think that his support had an impact.

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One vigilant voter in Florida noticed something odd this morning:

Scanner jammed in 1st 45 min. Poll workers suggested people leave ballots to be scanned later. Whole line refused. Scanned suddenly fixed

— CK (@DrChrisKellogg) November 6, 2012

If you think you see signs of voter fraud, send emails, questions, links and videos to tips@revealingpolitics.com and visit truethevote.org for more info.

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